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Avoiding Logical Fallacies: Presuming Causation

This is a fictitious example and quasi-supernatural thought experiment: skep/dad’s all-natural, one-size-fits-all, time traveling baseball cap, also known as The Chrono-Hat.

The story so far: My pal, Victor Dillweed, has a time traveling baseball cap. He calls it his Chrono-Hat, and when he wears it he can travel backwards and forwards through time, visiting the far future and the ancient past. His visits are instantaneous, ephemeral, and he can only make a return journey if he comes back empty handed. Or so he claims. These rules, after all, leave him a little short on hard evidence. As usual, the skep/kids (Winston and Julia) and I attempt to debunk his claims — but this time around make the mistake of presuming causation.

Of course, this is just a thought experiment. My explorations of logical fallacies is meant as a light-hearted approach to discussing the nuances of common mistakes in the critical thought process. The full index of fallacies can be found here. By examining each of these fallacies I hope to provide opportunity for (1) my own further education, research, and understanding, (2) the education of others, and (3) a reference and foundation for further articles, entries, and topics in this blog. And to proceed with this exploration I am going to fall back on the tried and tested (albeit composed of my own original details) fictitious example and quasi-supernatural thought experiment: skep/dad’s all-natural, one-size-fits-all, time traveling baseball cap, also known as The Chrono-Hat.

The Fallacy of Presuming Causation

skep/dad: Alright, kids. I hope you’re not doing anything too important at the moment. Mr. Dillweed says if we come outside right now we can watch him time travel. He’s got his chrono-hat with him and he says he’s got to make a couple trips. Follow me.

Julia: Where is he?

skep/dad: He’s standing on our front lawn under the big willow tree.

Winston: This better not be some dumb trick. How is he going show us time travel, anyhow?

We parade out our front door to find Victor Dillweed standing on our front lawn as I left him, a faded orange baseball-style cap gripped firmly with both hands, and a wry grin on his face.

Victor: Glad you two finally believe me enough to come out and watch me take my next big adventure. Don’t know if your dad mentioned it, though, but I’m about to make three short jumps.

Winston: Where? Or, I mean… when?

Victor: No need to sneer. Such little cynics you’ve got yourself here, dude.

skep/dad: I try.

Victor: Actually, my first jump will be to a week ago, tomorrow. Uh, six days back, if I count correctly. I’ve lost my keys and I need to figure out where I’ve left them.

Julia: And that will help?

Victor: Sure, just watch.

Victor raises the cap over his head, leveling it a few inches above his brow. He steadies it for a moment, closes his eyes as if concentrating, and then pulls it firmly onto his head in one swift motion. There is a shudder in the leaves on the willow tree behind him as a breeze passes by in the warm summer afternoon. And a second later Victor pulls the cap from his head and brings it down in front of him, eyes open and a look of beaming expectation on his face.

Julia: Nothing happened.

Winston: You didn’t go anywhere.

Victor: It was instantaneous! To your eyes I would have appeared not to have moved a hair, but in reality I was gone for more than an hour. I found my keys, by the way. Stupid me, I locked them in my car’s trunk.

Winston: You expect us to believe that without any proof?

Victor: I guess it depends on how observant you were. I’ve been told — only told this mind you — that there is an ever so slight shift in air pressure when I travel that makes the wind move around me. I’ll take my second trip and you can watch. Pay close attention to any signs of the wind moving this time.

The kids look at each other doubtfully.

skep/dad: Where are you off to this time, Vic?

Victor: Ah, yes. I almost forgot. My daughter’s piano recital was last Tuesday. She thinks I was there, but it must have been me from the future going back in time to see it. I figured I’d get that chore out of the way before I forgot to go back entirely and created some sort of temporal rift in the universe or something.

skep/dad: Give her our best.

Once again the performance is repeated, the cap lifted to Victor’s head followed by a hesitation. He waits a moment, then as he pulls the cap onto his brow once again, the leave shudder behind him, and he yanks the cap off once again. He takes a deep breath and looks at the three of us once again.

Victor: She’s so talented. It makes a father proud.

Winston: Well, you were right about the air.

Julia: I did see it move that time.

Victor: You finally believe me? I told you. I told you!

skep/dad: Perhaps you had better take your final trip, Vic. Just, you know, so we can see it one more time. To be sure.

Victor: Alright. Sure. No problem.

Julia: And where are you going?

Winston: You mean ‘when are you going?’

Julia: Whatever.

Victor: Yes. When? Ah. Well, I have one more quick trip to make into the past. Mrs. Dillweed loaned one of her recipe books to a friend last week. Now she wants to bake some cookies from, but her friends is out of town. She remembered most of the recipe, but I need to go back and see how much flour she was supposed to use. They are very tasty cookies.

skep/dad: At your leisure, then, Vic.

Victor’s sly grin has never left his face and he winks at me before he, for the third time, engages the routine of lifting the hat to over his head and holding it there. This time there is a long pause, nearly a minute, while Victor stands leveling the cap, eyes closed. Finally, the performance concludes as expected from the previous two: a swift pull of the cap over the head, a shiver in the tree behind as the wind gust suddenly, and the cap is removed.

Julia: I think that proves it. Did you all see the tree move?

Winston: That was amazing.

Victor: It moved then? The air pressure changed around me and the tree moved?

Julia: Yeah. I can hardly believe it?

Victor: Well, then it looks like I’ve finally convinced you all. What does your dad think?

skep/dad: It was a fairly impressive performance, I’ll admit. But, I would ask Winston and Julia one thing. How certain are you that the leaves shaking in the tree were caused by time travel?

Julia: Well, it’s a pretty big coincidence, otherwise.

Winston: There’s no other explanation. At least…

skep/dad: Would you say that Mr. Dillweed could prove the two events were connected?

Victor: Tell your dad I just did.

Winston: He didn’t really prove it. But they did happen at the same time. Three times! That’s very convincing.

skep/dad: It can be convincing. But do you think we should be presuming that one event caused the other? As Julia said, it’s a pretty big coincidence. But isn’t that a possibility, too?

Julia: I suppose. Maybe the two aren’t connected at all then.

Winston: He could have just timed it really well.

skep/dad: Mr. Dillweed put on quite a performance. But we I don’t think we can use this as proof. This is what some scientists would call presuming causation when it is really correlation. Correlation means that two events happened at the same time, but are not necessarily connected.

Victor: I resent that.

skep/dad: Sorry, Vic. But there is still a big hole in your proof. But feel free to bring us some of those cookies when they’re ready.

The skep/dad blog is meant to casually reflect on questions surrounding parenting and raising kids to become critical thinkers by asking questions and examining parenting ideas with a skeptical eye for facts and science. Each article is one dad's personal opinion, backed where relevant by literature and published research. skep/dad welcomes balanced discussion, comments, and ideas.

January 16, 2008 by Brad
Filed as: Skeptical Mindsets

Popularity: 34%

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